Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 22.546952 27.010414 31.926693 37.716771 44.321467 51.592491 60.173335
2025-05-25 15.234573 20.884575 27.767922 36.652552 47.688394 60.812972 77.457056
2025-06-01 11.422467 17.440204 25.370827 36.333638 50.812875 68.983868 93.175219
2025-06-08 8.545431 14.420843 22.736895 34.946500 51.939390 74.239724 105.124847
2025-06-15 7.154438 13.143675 22.139558 36.006763 56.120487 83.443410 122.435914
2025-06-22 5.611231 11.279671 20.336215 35.003613 57.167196 88.303424 134.033215
2025-06-29 4.856549 10.535219 20.085841 36.185590 61.318834 97.567493 152.000446
2025-07-06 3.699387 8.819671 17.985895 34.190898 60.467151 99.525310 159.671381
2025-07-13 3.259435 8.352166 17.906080 35.396573 64.543545 108.807588 178.185506
2025-07-20 2.853532 7.860982 17.699255 36.329930 68.198176 117.583884 196.279324
2025-07-27 2.554778 7.530817 17.732158 37.650313 72.523485 127.539420 216.484214
2025-08-03 2.283540 7.200645 17.710500 38.845405 76.678744 137.378397 236.850704
2025-08-10 1.875124 6.483210 16.899357 38.675271 78.794362 144.568338 254.232153
2025-08-17 1.457122 5.615667 15.641306 37.537321 79.183204 149.092773 267.848767
2025-08-24 1.175749 5.021077 14.859351 37.209667 80.936603 155.873397 285.247219
2025-08-31 0.890732 4.296429 13.629304 35.795509 80.541963 158.984120 296.812875
2025-09-07 0.776326 4.084576 13.594447 36.876339 84.874307 170.293799 322.133338
2025-09-14 0.597029 3.556538 12.650055 35.853727 85.064865 174.420032 335.712522
2025-09-21 0.525791 3.414623 12.701114 37.058624 89.685815 186.499059 362.994035
2025-09-28 0.374386 2.841181 11.424129 35.025162 87.645822 186.585708 369.953274
2025-10-05 0.330934 2.743898 11.514273 36.254324 92.346297 199.037000 398.484681
2025-10-12 0.287007 2.618724 11.494236 37.205753 96.516405 210.670943 425.959779
2025-10-19 0.255890 2.546075 11.627046 38.551546 101.595125 224.173120 457.096520